Unintended Consequences of Digital Infrastructure Development: The Impact on Crime Rates in China

The construction of digital infrastructure serves as a crucial lever for advancing national digital transformation and modernizing social governance. Using the “Broadband China” policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper constructs a multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) model. Based on panel data at the city level in China, the study systematically evaluates the impact of digital infrastructure development on crime rates and its underlying mechanisms. The study finds that: First, the expansion of digital infrastructure significantly increases crime rates, and this result remains robust across various model specifications. Second, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect is more pronounced in areas with high economic activity density and relatively weaker social governance capacity, indicating that the spillover effects of digital infrastructure are asymmetric across different social structures. Third, further analysis indicates that digital infrastructure, by optimizing employment structures and alleviating income disparities, can exert a corrective effect on crime rates under certain conditions. The study uncovers new challenges for social governance in the digital era, emphasizing the urgent need to strengthen risk identification and collaborative governance for public security alongside the promotion of digital infrastructure. These findings offer practical insights and policy implications for achieving the dual goals of high-quality development and social stability.