Persistent 2024 Warm‐Season Marine Heatwave in the Kuroshio Extension Region Under Global Warming

Abstract In 2024, the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region experienced a prolonged marine heatwave (MHW), intensifying during the warm season and peaking in mid‐August. Mixed‐layer heat budget analysis reveals that the onset was primarily driven by anticyclonic eddies associated with a northward‐shifted KE axis and enhanced shortwave radiation due to atmospheric blocking. This was further amplified by an eastward‐propagating Eurasian teleconnection wave train triggered by North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The decay phase was dominated by eddy activity and wind–evaporation–SST feedback. Attribution analysis shows that such an event would have been unlikely without anthropogenic forcing, with approximately 35% of its magnitude attributed to atmospheric circulation, and the remaining 65% to thermodynamic warming and oceanic internal dynamics. These results highlight the increasing likelihood of persistent MHWs in dynamic western boundary current regions under climate change, emphasizing the need for enhanced predictive tools and targeted adaptation efforts.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2025-08-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117274
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.21

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article

Persistent 2024 Warm‐Season Marine Heatwave in the Kuroshio Extension Region Under Global Warming

Haosu Tang, Lifei Qiao
2 citations
Geophysical Research Letters
Climate variability and models
2.21
article

Persistent 2024 Warm‐Season Marine Heatwave in the Kuroshio Extension Region Under Global Warming

Haosu Tang, Lifei Qiao
article en
2 citations

Abstract

Abstract In 2024, the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region experienced a prolonged marine heatwave (MHW), intensifying during the warm season and peaking in mid‐August. Mixed‐layer heat budget analysis reveals that the onset was primarily driven by anticyclonic eddies associated with a northward‐shifted KE axis and enhanced shortwave radiation due to atmospheric blocking. This was further amplified by an eastward‐propagating Eurasian teleconnection wave train triggered by North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The decay phase was dominated by eddy activity and wind–evaporation–SST feedback. Attribution analysis shows that such an event would have been unlikely without anthropogenic forcing, with approximately 35% of its magnitude attributed to atmospheric circulation, and the remaining 65% to thermodynamic warming and oceanic internal dynamics. These results highlight the increasing likelihood of persistent MHWs in dynamic western boundary current regions under climate change, emphasizing the need for enhanced predictive tools and targeted adaptation efforts.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 52(16)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CN), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), University of Sheffield (GB)
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Openalex Percentile: Top 12%
Climate variability and models
2.21
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