Rain, Rain, Go Away: Stochastic Model In Predicting The Future Rainfall

This study explores the Markov Chain (MC) method for forecasting future precipitation in Tanah Merah, Kelantan. This study also defined the state space and time set in discrete where the data is being observed daily. The rainfall is categorized into 5 states, which are . The transition probability matrix (TPM) was then determined for each month. On top of the TPM for each month, risk matrices were also established for each state. These risk matrices are constructed by calculating the limiting distribution of the TPMs. This risk matrix shows the likelihood of future floods warning given the current state of rainfall.