Time of Emergence of Record‐Shattering Compound Heatwave‐Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Socio‐Economic Exposures

Abstract Extreme events surpassing historical variability are expected to occur more frequently under future warming conditions. However, the time of emergence (ToE) of record‐shattering compound heatwave‐extreme precipitation events (CHEPs), where extreme precipitation shortly follows heatwaves, has rarely been quantified. Here, we present the first global analysis for the ToE of record‐shattering CHEPs along with their exposed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population utilizing multiple large ensembles. CHEP hotspots generally experience earlier ToE. Under SSP2‐4.5 scenario, 71% of global areas are expected to experience the emergence of record‐shattering CHEP frequency by 2100, compared to less than 10% by 2030. However, most water‐limited regions do not show ToE signs until at least 2100. Socio‐economic exposures reveal an alarming upward trend throughout the 21st century. By the late 21st century, significant GDP and population exposures are expected, with the poorest regions facing the most widespread impacts, indicating that region‐specific adaptation strategies are urgently needed.