Research note: Merry now, marry later? Initial labor market conditions and marital intentions in the Philippines

Objective: Following the Oppenheimerian hypothesis that employment stability partly explains (earlier) marriage timing, particularly among career-oriented young adults, we test the relationship between precarious initial labor market conditions and marital intentions among the highly educated population in the Philippines. Background: A substantial body of literature suggests that early career employment instability is associated with family formation. The Philippines, as the only country besides the Vatican without a legal provision for divorce, presents a unique and novel context for analyzing both the institution of and preferences for marriage. Method: Using data from a nationally representative graduate tracer survey in the Philippines, we estimate the association between initial labor market conditions and marital intentions using inverse probability weighted (IPW) logistic regression models to account for selection into the never-married population upon completing higher education. Results: Our analysis highlights three findings. First, an overwhelming majority (95%) intend to get married across all labor market statuses, suggesting a near-universal idealization of marriage among highly educated young adults. Second, precarious labor market states are not associated with marital intentions except for economically inactive females. Finally, precarity matters for the expressed timing of marriage - compared to their stably employed counterparts, marriage-oriented young adults on fixed-term contracts, unemployment, or economic inactivity express a slightly later ideal period to marry. Conclusion: These descriptive findings speak to the idea that in societies where marriage is considered a near-universally ideal life course milestone, young adults in “merry” employment conditions intend to marry sooner rather than later.