Microscopic Spatial Distribution and Determinants of Low Birth : A Neighborhood-level MGWR(Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression) Analysis

Low birth is a pervasive phenomenon across South Korea, exhibiting distinct regional disparities. Despite the significant microscopic spatial differences in low birth rates, research exploring the spatial distribution and determinants of low birth across the entire nation through a microscopic approach remains limited. To timely address this gap, this study employs a set of 2020 national data from Statistics Korea, analyzing the microscopic spatial distribution and determinants of low birth across 3,501 neighborhoods(Eup, Myeon, and Dong) nationwide using a MGWR(Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression) model. The analysis reveals that neighborhoods with active household formation, young adults(age 30s)-centered population structure, favorable residential and work environments tend to have higher birth rates. Notably, the direction, magnitude, and statistical significance of the factors influencing low birth exhibit substantial variation across neighborhoods. This study is expected to serve as a foundational step for policy interventions aimed at reversing the declining birth trend by fostering neighborhood conditions that are conducive to marriage, childbirth, and child-rearing. Furthermore, the findings provide valuable insights for creating birth-friendly residential environments and formulating effective housing supply and real estate policies.