Connectivity Between Ephemeral and Permanent Gullies and Its Impact on Gully Morphology: A Regional Study in the Northeast China Black Soil Region

Gully development is a significant geomorphological and environmental process that affects land degradation worldwide, with ephemeral gullies (EGs) and permanent gullies (PGs) being the two most common types. These two gully types are often spatially connected, and with such EG-PG connectivity can accelerate erosion. However, systematic research on this phenomenon remains limited, particularly at the regional scale. This study focuses on the spatial connectivity between EGs and PGs in the Songnen black soil region of northeast China. An unequal probability stratified sampling was used to establish 977 small watershed units, and a database of gullies and their connectivity was constructed based on sub-meter imagery. Among them, 55 representative units were randomly selected within geomorphic zones for field surveys and UAV validation to ensure data accuracy. Spatial patterns of gully connectivity were analyzed, and dominant controlling factors were identified using the Geodetector, which quantifies spatial stratified heterogeneity and evaluates the explanatory power of potential driving factors. The results are as follows: (1) Gully connectivity varies significantly across the region, with hotspot areas where more than 50% of permanent gullies are connected to ephemeral gullies, and cold spot clusters elsewhere. (2) Permanent gullies connected to ephemeral gullies differ significantly from unconnected ones in both length and width, with the former exhibiting a more elongated morphology. (3) Slope length and mean annual precipitation are the primary drivers of gully connectivity, both showing significant positive effects. Moreover, the interaction between mean annual precipitation and slope length shows the strongest explanatory power, indicating that precipitation, in combination with topographic features, plays a dominant role in shaping gully connectivity. By examining the spatial patterns of gully connectivity, this study contributes to a more refined understanding of gully morphological evolution and offers empirical insights for enhancing gully erosion models and optimizing regional soil and water conservation strategies.