Can Authoritarians’ Electoral Success Abroad Change Citizens’ Satisfaction with Democracy?

Abstract Authoritarians’ electoral victories often catch worldwide attention as they are detrimental to global democracy. But despite the salience of their victories, we know little about whether these events abroad change citizens’ satisfaction with democracy (SWD). Building on the transnational learning literature, this research tests two diverging effects regarding the spillover of an authoritarian’s electoral victory. Citizens may be less satisfied with domestic democracy (contagion/domino effect) or see their democracy in a rosier light (benchmark effect). Additionally, because of motivated reasoning, such effects may be heterogeneous among citizens with different ideologies. To test for these expectations, I re-analyse two datasets collected in Europe amid the 2016 US presidential election. Both studies demonstrate a modest benchmark effect, as citizens’ SWD increases after Trump’s unexpected victory. Also, the heterogeneity analysis finds that the benchmark effect is most prominent among citizens who previously voted for socialist/radical left parties or liberal parties. I discuss how these findings enrich the literature on autocratization, transnational learning and satisfaction with democracy.