Extra Tree Regression Algorithm for Simulation of Iceberg Draft and Subgouge Soil Characteristics

With the expansion of offshore and subsea infrastructure in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, concerns are rising, driven by climate change and global warming, over the risk of drifting icebergs colliding with these structures in cold waters. Traditional methods for estimating iceberg underwater height and assessing subgouge soil properties, such as costly and time-consuming underwater surveys or centrifuge tests, are still used, but the industry continues to seek faster and more cost-efficient solutions. In this study, the extra tree regression (ETR) algorithm was employed for the first time to simultaneously model iceberg drafts and subgouge soil properties in both sandy and clay seabeds. The ETR approach first predicted the iceberg draft, then simulated subgouge soil reaction forces and deformations. A total of 22 ETR models were developed, incorporating parameters relevant to both iceberg draft estimation and subgouge soil characterization. The best-performing ETR models, along with the most influential input variables, were identified through a combination of sensitivity, error, discrepancy, and uncertainty analyses. The ETR model predicted iceberg draft with a high level of accuracy (R = 0.920, RMSE = 1.081), while the superior model for vertical reaction force in sand achieved an RMSE of 43.95 with 70% of predictions within 16% error. The methodology demonstrated improved prediction capacity over traditional techniques and can serve early-stage iceberg risk management.