Assessing the Potential Distribution of the Traditional Chinese Medicinal Plant Spatholobus suberectus in China Under Climate Change: A Biomod2 Ensemble Model-Based Study

<i>Spatholobus suberectus</i>, a valuable Chinese medicinal plant, faces habitat shifts under climate change. In order to better utilize the medicinal properties of <i>S. suberectus</i> and conduct further investigations, this study utilized the Biomod2 ensemble model to predict and analyze the potential expansion and contraction of suitable habitat areas for <i>S. suberectus</i> in China under changing climatic and environmental conditions. The results showed that, compared to the pre-screened models, the ensemble model significantly improved the prediction accuracy. Currently, <i>S. suberectus</i> is primarily distributed in southern China. Under the projected scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, its suitable habitat is expected to expand overall, with the increased areas concentrated mainly in southwestern, central, and eastern China. As climatic factors shift, the high-suitability center of <i>S. suberectus</i> is predicted to shift slightly southward under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, while under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it is projected to move northwestward. In the future, it will be necessary to optimize the warm and humid growth environment for cultivated <i>S. suberectus</i> in China. Meanwhile, wild <i>S. suberectus</i> populations should be closely monitored for the impact of climate change to prevent potential partial reductions in suitable habitats, thereby ensuring ecological balance and sustainable development.