Prioritizing projects in rural electrification planning: Integrating MAUT with OnSSET

This study employs the Open-Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to identify the least-cost technology options, investment requirements, and capacity needed to electrify all unelectrified communities in Sokoto State, Nigeria. Based on OnSSET modelling, the total number of unelectrified settlements in the study area is 1,453, with a corresponding population of 1.28 million. Our results show that mini-grid PV is the least-cost electrification option for electrifying about 90% of the unelectrified settlements. We estimate the cost of providing basic electricity access to unelectrified communities at US$231.4 million, and the additional capacity required is 125 MW. Given the large number of unelectrified settlements, and the financial requirements for achieving universal electricity access, we proceed to prioritize the settlements using the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). This approach identifies settlements that have the highest socio-economic benefits if electrified, based on five criteria: financial, economic, social, demographic and political. We conclude by noting that the technical, institutional, and governance constraints to achieving universal electrification in Nigeria are being addressed; however, the financial constraints persist. We recommend that financial support by multilateral development organizations should also include support for setting up assembling and/or manufacturing facilities for renewable energy equipment in Nigeria as this will substantially reduce the cost of mini-grid projects as well as the associated risks of such projects in terms of cost recovery. • We identify the least-cost electrification options of rural communities . • We examine the financial requirement for achieving universal electricity access. • We adopt the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to prioritize communities . • The MAUT uses several criteria and bespoke utility functions. • We identify other constraints to achieving universal electrification .