Research on Multi technology Route Sales Prediction and Carbon Emission Reduction Collaborative Optimization in the Passenger Car Market from the Perspective of Environmental Management

Under the background of global energy transition and carbon neutral strategy, the transportation sector, as an important source of carbon emission, is in need of scientific planning for its low-carbon development path. Based on the perspective of environmental management, this study constructs a multi-technology route sales forecasting and carbon emission reduction co-optimization model for the passenger car market, aiming to reveal the differences in the environmental benefits of different technological routes and their impacts on the “dual-carbon” goal. By integrating the Gompertz model, multivariate logit model and carbon emission calculation method, the market competition pattern and environmental benefits of pure electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and traditional fuel vehicles (ICEVs) are systematically analyzed. The study finds that PHEVs rapidly replace ICEVs at the early stage of the transition by virtue of their “oil- and electricity-capable” characteristics, but their carbon emission intensity in the use phase is 61.5% higher than that of BEVs, and there is a shortcoming in environmental benefits; although BEVs have the best environmental benefits, with a single-vehicle emission reduction of 1.6 tons of CO₂ per year, their fleet emission reduction contribution may be reduced by PHEVs due to the constraints of the charging infrastructure. The study further shows that the current development path can naturally achieve the near-zero emission target by 2060, but technological innovation and policy synergy are needed to reach the net-zero emission vision by 2050. The innovative value of this study is mainly reflected in: first, the construction of an interdisciplinary analytical framework that integrates market forecasting and environmental assessment; second, the development of a multi-scenario simulation model that takes into account key technological breakthroughs (e.g., solid-state batteries); and third, the quantitative revelation of the differential impacts of different combinations of technological routes on the process of carbon neutrality, which provides a scientific basis for environmental management decision-making.