Brief communication – Vent opening at Campi Flegrei: clues from dyke propagation patterns

Abstract. Forecasting future vent opening position is fundamental for managing volcanic hazards, and is usually based on the spatial density of past vents or other crust weakness indicators. Here, a novel empirical approach inspired by dyke propagation models is applied to the Campi Flegrei caldera. Results show that dyke direction correlates with topographic peaks within 6 km from the caldera center, and propagation length exhibits two main peaks at 2 and 4 km, leading to a vent opening probability map with maxima well correlating with recent major seismicity and deformations.