Analysis of Spatiotemporal Distribution Trends of Aerosol Optical Depth and Meteorological Influences in Gansu Province, Northwest China

Atmospheric pollution constitutes one of the key environmental challenges hindering Atmospheric pollution is a key environmental challenge constraining the sustainable development of Gansu Province’s land-based Belt and Road corridor and its regional ecological barrier function. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of aerosol optical depth (AOD) profoundly impacts regional environmental quality. Based on MODIS AOD, NCEP reanalysis, and emission data, this study employed trend analysis (Mann–Kendall test) and attribution analysis (multiple linear regression combined with LMG and Spearman correlation) to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of AOD over Gansu Province during 2009–2019 and its meteorological and emission drivers. Key findings include the following: (1) AOD exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with high values concentrated in the Hexi Corridor and central regions; monthly variation showed a unimodal pattern (peak value of 0.293 in April); and AOD generally declined slowly province-wide during 2009–2019 (52.8% of the area showed significant decreases). (2) Following the implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013 (2014–2019), AOD trends stabilized or declined in 99.8% of the area, indicating significant improvement. (3) Meteorological influences displayed distinct regional-seasonal specificity—the Hexi Corridor (arid zone) was characterized by strong negative correlations with relative humidity (RH2) and wind speed (WS) year-round, and positive correlations with temperature (T2) in spring but negative in summer in the north; the Hedong region (industrial zone) featured strong positive correlations with planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) in summer (r > 0.6) and with T2 in spring/summer; and the Gannan Plateau (alpine zone) showed positive WS correlations in spring and weak positive RH2 correlations in spring/autumn, highlighting the decisive regulatory role of underlying surface properties. (4) Emission factors (PM2.5, SO42−, NO3−, NH4+, OM, and BC) dominated (>50% relative contribution) in 80% of seasonal scenarios, prevailing in most regions (Hexi: 71–95% year-round; Hedong: 68–80% year-round; and Gannan: 69–72% in spring/summer). Key components included BC (contributing > 30% in 11 seasons, e.g., 52.5% in Hedong summer), NO3− + NH4+ (>57% in Hexi summer/autumn), and OM (20.3% in Gannan summer, 19.0% province-wide spring). Meteorological factors were the primary driver exclusively in Gannan winter (82%, T2-dominated) and province-wide summer (67%, RH2 + WS-dominated). In conclusion, Gansu’s AOD evolution is co-driven by emission factors (dominant province-wide) and meteorological factors (regionally and seasonally specific). Post-2013 environmental policies effectively promoted regional air quality improvement, providing a scientific basis for differentiated aerosol pollution control in arid, industrial, and alpine zones.