Facilitation or Inhibition? Aging Rural Labor Force and Forestry Economic Resilience: Based on the Perspective of Production Factors

Globally, the accelerating aging of the rural labor force is profoundly impacting the economic resilience of the labor-intensive forestry sector. However, the intrinsic connection between the two has not been fully understood and requires further exploration. As the most populous nation globally and a top producer, trader, and consumer of forest products, China stands out as a perfect case study for this issue. Based on this, this study utilizes panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022 and employs a dual machine learning model to empirically examine the impact and mechanisms of rural labor force aging on forestry economic resilience from the perspective of production factors. The findings indicate: (1) overall, the increase in rural labor force aging significantly inhibits forestry economic resilience; (2) rural labor force aging enhances forestry economic resilience by promoting large-scale forest land management, driving forestry technological innovation, and increasing government capital investment; it also inhibits forestry economic resilience by reducing educational human capital and health human capital; (3) the rural force aging exerts a marked adverse effect on the resilience of the forestry economy in the eastern and central regions, major grain-producing areas, and major grain-consuming areas. Based on this, this study proposes policy recommendations in three areas: building a flexible and diversified labor supply and replacement system, exploring a “scale and technology” integration path suited to national conditions, and implementing differentiated regional strategies. The aim is to provide a reference for government departments in formulating strategies to enhance the resilience of the forestry economy in the era of aging.