Cattle Rustling in Kenya’s Tiaty Sub-County

Cattle rustling in Kenya’s Tiaty sub-county persists as a complex crisis fueled by historical marginalisation, climate-induced resource scarcity, and governance failures. This mixed methods sequential explanatory design study integrates 12 years of incident data (2010–2023), satellite-derived ecological metrics, and phenomenological interviews (n=72) to evaluate state interventions and community perspectives. Findings reveal that infrastructure development (schools, dams) and National Police Reservists (NPRs) reduced raids by 37% and 28%, respectively, while militarised disarmament increased civilian casualties by 19% and deepened distrust. The study introduces the Resource-Governance-Conflict (RGC) framework, demonstrating how drought-driven pasture loss (NDVI < 0.2), corruption (r = 0.61 with raid frequency), and colonial-era grievances intersect to sustain cycles of violence. Community narratives highlight the transformative potential of participatory strategies:78% endorsed dialogue, while microloan programs reduced youth raid participation by 30%. Conversely, 82% condemned state coercion, citing human rights abuses and exclusion from decision-making. Policy recommendations prioritise multi-scalar solutions: (1) a tech-enabled early warning system co-designed with pastoralists; (2) a $5 million Tiaty Youth Empowerment Fund targeting unemployment (62%); (3) cross-border tribunals to dismantle transnational syndicates trafficking 15% of stolen livestock. The RGC framework advances scholarly debates by bridging political ecology and institutional theory, offering a replicable model for pastoral conflicts globally. By centering community agency and ecological justice, this study provides actionable pathways to transform Tiaty from a conflict hotspot into a resilience paradigm, urging policymakers to replace militarisation with equity-driven, climate-smart peacebuilding.