“I could have done otherwise”: the neural bases of counterfactual representations

Counterfactual thinking, the ability to mentally represent how events might have unfolded differently, plays a central role in decision-making, memory, learning, and emotional regulation, and has even been described as a foundation of human cognition itself. Yet the neural systems supporting this capacity remain debated. Here, we present a quantitative meta-analysis of 20 fMRI studies, synthesising evidence across tasks involving both simulated counterfactuals, where individuals deliberately imagine alternative self-referential scenarios, and computed counterfactuals, where the brain evaluates unchosen outcomes during decision-making. This analysis identified a distributed network encompassing the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), hippocampus, striatum, and amygdala. Within this network, the OFC emerged as a hub for representing counterfactual options and their value, while the ACC, particularly its dorsal subdivision, linked these representations to behavioural control. The hippocampus supported constructive aspects of counterfactual thought, overlapping with episodic memory processes, and the amygdala contributed to the affective responses, particularly regret. Separate analyses for simulated and computed counterfactuals revealed partial dissociations. Simulated counterfactuals recruited the superior frontal gyrus, involved in constructive memory processes. Computed counterfactuals engaged the striatum, where fictive error signals encoded the value of unchosen outcomes and predicted subsequent behaviour. These findings indicate that counterfactual thinking relies on distinct but interacting systems for valuation, control, memory, and emotion, highlighting its multifaceted role in adaptive human cognition.