Power-Outage Scope Inference and Repair Crew Dispatch for Resilient Distribution Grids Based on Source-Terminal Reliability

In recent years, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has significantly impacted power systems. To analyze system vulnerabilities and reduce system losses, this paper conducts research within the framework of resilient distribution networks. In terms of resilience assessment, power outage information at specific nodes is treated as prior knowledge, and source-terminal reliabilities (ST-Rel) are used to infer the posterior probabilities of outages at other nodes, thus estimating the potential scope of power outage. For resilience enhancement, a repair crew dispatch algorithm is formulated, taking into account the expected repair time for damaged lines. Through coordinated efforts during and after a disaster, the resilience level of the system can be effectively enhanced. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed methods is validated through case studies on an IEEE 33-bus distribution grid.