Exploring urban resilience through the food–water–energy nexus during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from the Great Pause in Tokyo

The COVID-19 lockdown measures across countries led to drastic fluctuations in resource utilization, which plunged cities into a state of “The Great Pause” and exposing the fragility of urban systems. The evolving nature of the pandemic complicated the long-term management of urban food, energy and water (FEW) services, emphasizing the intensive interconnections among these resources. Although many studies have examined sectoral disruptions in isolation, the interconnections between FEW resources across sectors remain underexplored. Using Tokyo as a case study, this study investigates the resilience of an urban basic supply system during COVID-19. The impact of the pandemic on FEW consumption patterns is evaluated by controlling for factors such as seasonality, trends, and prices. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression model was applied to analyze disturbances and recovery of FEW consumption, revealing disruptions and interactions across FEW sectors. Our findings reveal a sharp decline in commercial energy use during the Great Pause, with reductions of up to 18 % per month compared to the baseline. In contrast, household energy use increased drastically, surging by as much as 15 %, primarily due to increased heating demands and high in-home food expenditures. These shifts revealed altered urban resource use patterns and highlighted challenges in adapting resource subsystems. In addition, the sensitivity of energy consumption to community mobility revealed variations in energy use efficiency across sectors. This study demonstrates the potential of using the Great Pause as a critical benchmark for assessing essential resource demands during major disruptions. • The “Great Pause City” framework reveals pandemic-driven urban resource dynamics. • A modified TVP-VAR model captures cross-sector FEW interactions over time. • The Great Pause highlights the essential demands of the urban system under stress. • The pandemic reshaped residential lifestyles, intensifying household FEW nexus. • Findings provides insights to enhance urban resilience against future disruptions.