Digesting the Climate Change Narrative Across Africa: Exploring the causal effects of economic growth and the mediation role of land use change on temperature rise

Africa is disproportionately affected by climate change, with rising temperatures posing significant challenges to the continent's sustainable development. However, this effect may vary across regions due to differences in economic growth, energy consumption, urbanization, and land use changes. This study investigates the impact of these factors on temperature rise both regionally and across five African economic blocs: East African Community (EAC), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Southern African Development Community (SADC), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), employing data from 1980 to 2023. Advanced econometric techniques, including Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG), Augmented Mean Group (AMG), and Cross-sectional Dynamic Least Squares (CS-DL), were used alongside Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and variance decomposition for robust results. Results indicate that economic growth promotes temperature rise in Africa, ECOWAS, and AMU but reduces it in SADC, ECCAS, and EAC. Furthermore, energy consumption increases temperature across all blocs except in EAC. Urbanization reduces temperature in SADC, AMU, and EAC while increasing it in ECCAS. Land use changes drive temperature rise in SADC, EAC, and Africa but reduce it in ECOWAS and ECCAS, and as a mediator, it amplifies the effect of urbanization on temperature. The causality test yielded mixed results across the blocs. However, the impulse response and variance decomposition indicated growth and energy consumption accounted for higher variations in temperature rise within the 10-year forecast. This study provides a valuable regional baseline for policies related to the economy-energy-urbanization-land use-temperature nexus. • CS-DL, SEM, causality, and variance decomposition methods were employed for analysis. • Land-use change intensifies urbanization's impact on temperature increases. • Temperature rise causes in Africa differ by factors and economic regions. • Growth and energy consumption drove temperature variations across several regions. • Sustainable policies are essential to mitigating temperature increases.