Multi-scenario simulation of oasis city under resilient ecological security constrains

The creation of ecological security patterns (ESPs) is crucial for balancing environmental conservation and economic development in arid regions, yet current research overlooks dynamic integration of ESPs into land use simulations. This study proposes the ESP-MOP-PLUS model, coupling multi-level ESP constraints (OESP/MESP/WESP) with multi-objective quantitative optimization to simulate future land use in Urumqi, an oasis city. Four scenarios (BAU, RED, ELP, BUE) were designed, integrating territorial spatial zoning (DCR, TER, OCR). Key findings reveal: (1) Quantitative-spatial coupling effectively constrained desertification, increasing grassland by 1.82%-1.85% in ELP/BUE versus 5.62% loss in RED; (2) ESP-driven elastic protection reduced barren land expansion by 6.98% in ELP compared to RED; (3) Functional zoning optimization identified Tianshan Ecological Reserve as a priority protection area, where strict ESP maintenance boosted ecological connectivity. The framework provides a transferable tool for sustainable land planning in ecologically fragile arid cities. • Multi-level ESPs identified as coherent ecological constraints for land simulation. • ESP-MOP-PLUS model couples spatial constraints with quantitative land-use targets. • Functional zoning (OCD/TER/DCR) integrates regional planning into scenario design. • Model guides oasis-city land optimization under ecological-economic tradeoffs. • ELP/BUE scenarios significantly curb desertification and grassland loss.