Increased material footprint as a side effect of progress towards affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy

Abstract Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy (SDG 7) remains a global challenge, with 660 million people projected to lack electricity by 2030. However, increasing electrification, particularly in developing regions, risks amplifying material extraction, impacting sustainable resource management (SDG 12.2). Using 2015 as the base year, this study quantifies the potential direct and indirect material requirements of achieving universal electrification by 2030. Our findings show a 17.2% increase in the electricity sector’s material footprint, with the transition to low-carbon sources adding another 6.9%. The majority of new electricity demand is expected to occur in Africa and Asia-Pacific, with Africa also leading in material extraction. Despite these increases, the electricity sector’s overall contribution to global material use remains relatively modest. This study highlights SDG trade-offs and emphasizes the need for locally produced electricity to not only improve energy access but also generate broader economic benefits along the supply chain.