A skewed jury theorem: more theorems in search of the truth

Abstract I propose a ranking-based aggregation model utilizing quantiles, such as the median or first quartile. This approach is broader than most in existing literature, as it does not require competent individuals. It recovers the asymptotic convergence property of finite estimations in the Condorcet Jury Theorem as a special case. This procedure is radical in occasionally granting greater respect to minority opinions. An optimistic conclusion is that individual errors can be mitigated and the wisdom of crowds manifested through intelligent aggregation.

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Publication Details

Journal
Synthese
Published
2025-08-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-025-05125-0
Primary Topic
Advanced Database Systems and Queries
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

A skewed jury theorem: more theorems in search of the truth

Berna Kilinc
Synthese
Advanced Database Systems and Queries
article

A skewed jury theorem: more theorems in search of the truth

Berna Kilinc
article en

Abstract

Abstract I propose a ranking-based aggregation model utilizing quantiles, such as the median or first quartile. This approach is broader than most in existing literature, as it does not require competent individuals. It recovers the asymptotic convergence property of finite estimations in the Condorcet Jury Theorem as a special case. This procedure is radical in occasionally granting greater respect to minority opinions. An optimistic conclusion is that individual errors can be mitigated and the wisdom of crowds manifested through intelligent aggregation.

SyntheseVol. 206(3)
Boğaziçi University (TR)
Universitetet i Tromsø, Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu
Openalex Percentile: Top 77%
Advanced Database Systems and Queries
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