Spatiotemporal Responses and Threshold Mechanisms of Urban Landscape Patterns to Ecosystem Service Supply–Demand Dynamics in Central Shenyang, China

Clarifying the spatiotemporal relationship between urban ecosystem services and changes in landscape patterns is essential, as it has significant implications for balancing ecological protection with socio-economic development. However, existing studies have largely focused on the one-sided impact of landscape patterns on either the supply or demand of ESs, with limited investigation into how changes in these patterns affect the growth rates of both supply and demand. The central urban area, characterized by complex urban functions, intricate land use structures, and diverse environmental challenges, further complicates this relationship; yet, the spatiotemporal differentiation patterns of ecosystem services’ supply–demand dynamics in such regions, along with the underlying influencing mechanisms, remain insufficiently explored. To address this gap, the present study uses Shenyang’s central urban area, China as a case study, integrating multiple data sources to quantify the spatiotemporal variations in landscape pattern indices and five ecosystem services: water retention, flood regulation, air purification, carbon sequestration, and habitat quality. The XGBoost model is employed to construct non-linear relationships between landscape pattern indices and the supply–demand ratios of these services. Using SHAP values and LOWESS analysis, this study evaluates both the magnitude and direction of each landscape pattern index’s influence on the ecological supply–demand ratio. The findings outlined above indicate that: there are distinct disparities in the spatiotemporal distribution of landscape pattern indices at the patch type level. Additionally, the changing trends in the supply, demand, and supply–demand ratios of ecosystem services show spatiotemporal differentiation. Overall, the ecosystem services in the study area are developing negatively. Further, the impact of landscape pattern characteristics on ecosystem services is non-linear. Each index has a unique effect, and there are notable threshold intervals. This study provides a novel analytical approach for understanding the intricate relationship between landscape patterns and ESs, offering a scientific foundation and practical guidance for urban ecological protection, restoration initiatives, and territorial spatial planning.