Data-Driven Assessment of Carbon Emission and Optimization of Carbon Emission Reduction in the Ceramic Industry

By integrating statistical modeling and data analysis techniques, we systematically assess the carbon emission performance of the ceramic industry and propose targeted emission reduction pathways. Firstly, the entropy weight TOPSIS model is employed to quantitatively evaluate the carbon emission performance of the three major Chinese ceramic production areas: Foshan, Jingdezhen, and Zibo. Through data-driven quantitative analysis, it is disclosed that the carbon emission intensity in Foshan is significantly higher than that in the other two regions (with a relative closeness degree of 0.5185). The key issues identified include high energy consumption in the production process, a high reliance on raw coal, and insufficient investment in environmental protection. Furthermore, through the XGBoost-SHAP combined modeling, the key drivers of carbon emissions are precisely identified from multi-dimensional data. It is found that the elasticity coefficient of raw coal in the carbon emission proportion is as high as 25.84%, while the potential for substitution with natural gas is remarkable. Based on statistical prediction techniques, a carbon emission trend model under the scenario of energy structure optimization is constructed, predicting that after reaching a peak in 2017, Foshan's carbon emissions will continue to decline, with the proportion of raw coal dropping to 48% and that of natural gas rising to 10%, thereby verifying the feasibility of the green transformation. Additionally, a multi-agent carbon trading simulation model is constructed to explore the emission reduction behaviors of enterprises under different carbon price scenarios. This study not only achieves precise quantitative analysis of carbon emissions through statistical method innovation but also verifies the feasible paths of low-carbon transformation through data modeling.