When Accounting for People Behavior Is Hard: Evaluation of Some Spatiotemporal Features for Electricity Load Demand Forecasting

Understanding human behavior is crucial for accurately predicting Electricity Load Demand (ELD), as daily habits and routines directly influence electricity consumption patterns across temporal and spatial domains. Two approaches for representing human mobility are explored: (i) incorporating location-based Human Dynamics (HD) data, and (ii) leveraging electricity consumption data from different contract types—Low Voltage (LV) for residential areas and High Voltage (HV) for industrial and office spaces. This study investigates which of these representations allows deep learning models to better capture the influence of human mobility on LV consumption. Focusing on mesh-level predictions, our experiments demonstrate that combining LV and HV data can reduce the spatiotemporal prediction error (STPE) of LV consumption by an average of 13.37%. Similarly, integrating HD data with LV can achieve a 14.3% average reduction in STPE for sufficiently large areas. While combining all three—LV, HV, and HD—can improve consistency across different areas, it does not universally lower the overall prediction error. Importantly, these experiments suggest that HV data provides more reliable results across various configurations, particularly in urban regions with strong business activity. In contrast, HD data is more effective for widespread regions characterized by significant human movement or densely populated areas. This study highlights the complementary roles of HV and HD data in improving spatiotemporal LV consumption predictions and offers valuable insights into tailoring feature selection based on area characteristics and forecasting objectives.