Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950

Flood impacts in Europe are considered to be increasing, but attribution of impacts to climatic and societal drivers of past floods has been limited to a selection of recent events. Here, we present an impact attribution study covering 1729 riverine, flash, coastal, and compound events that were responsible for an estimated 83 to 96% of flood-related impacts in Europe between 1950 and 2020. We show that, in most regions, the magnitude of flood impacts relative to the 1950 baseline has been regulated primarily by direct human actions. The population and economic value at risk have increased, but the effect of exposure growth has been largely compensated by reductions in vulnerability due to improved risk management. Observed long-term changes in climate and human alterations of river catchments were also important drivers of flood hazard in many regions, but ultimately less relevant for trends in total, continental-wide impacts.

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Publication Details

Journal
Science Advances
Published
2025-08-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adt7068
Citations
10
Primary Topic
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
11.05
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Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950

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Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950

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article en
10 citations

Abstract

Flood impacts in Europe are considered to be increasing, but attribution of impacts to climatic and societal drivers of past floods has been limited to a selection of recent events. Here, we present an impact attribution study covering 1729 riverine, flash, coastal, and compound events that were responsible for an estimated 83 to 96% of flood-related impacts in Europe between 1950 and 2020. We show that, in most regions, the magnitude of flood impacts relative to the 1950 baseline has been regulated primarily by direct human actions. The population and economic value at risk have increased, but the effect of exposure growth has been largely compensated by reductions in vulnerability due to improved risk management. Observed long-term changes in climate and human alterations of river catchments were also important drivers of flood hazard in many regions, but ultimately less relevant for trends in total, continental-wide impacts.

Science AdvancesVol. 11(33)
University of Szczecin (PL), University of Potsdam (DE), Heidelberg University (DE), Joint Research Centre (IT), GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (DE), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE), University of the Aegean (GR)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
11.05
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