Assessing the impacts of climate change and human activities on distribution of Lophatherum gracile in China using the maxent model

The combined effects of climate change and human activities are reshaping species distributions, with many valuable plant species also being affected. This study uses the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model to assess the current and future distribution of Lophatherum gracile Brongn. in China under different environmental and anthropogenic scenarios. A dataset comprising 142 occurrence records and 13 selected environmental variables, including bioclimatic, soil, and solar radiation factors, was used to predict suitable habitats. The model achieved high accuracy (AUC > 0.9, TSS > 0.7, CBI > 0.7), with precipitation during the driest month, elevation, and soil saturation identified as key factors influencing habitat suitability. The results indicate that under current conditions, L. gracile is predominantly distributed in southern China, including provinces such as Hunan, Guangxi, and Fujian. Future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) predict significant shifts in habitat suitability, with an overall reduction in highly suitable areas and a westward shift in the distribution centroid. Human activities exacerbate habitat fragmentation, resulting in a 2.18% reduction in suitable areas. These findings underscore the vulnerability of L. gracile to both environmental and anthropogenic pressures, highlighting the need for targeted conservation strategies. This research provides a scientific foundation for the conservation of L. gracile and informs adaptive management strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and human disturbance.