Study on the Duration Configuration of Energy Storage under Extreme Weather Based on LightGBM

Under the backdrop of high penetration of renewable energy, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events has raised higher demands for the supply-demand balance and operational security of power systems. As a critical resource for regulation, the configuration strategy of energy storage systems urgently needs to adapt to the increasing climate uncertainty. Based on meteorological data from 2040, this study constructs low-output scenarios for renewable energy during extreme weather events, and then utilizes the LightGBM model to predict wind and solar output as well as electricity load. Based on this, the study evaluates the duration configuration requirements of multi-time energy storage systems under different scenarios and their impact on system costs. The analysis reveals that changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events will significantly alter the prioritization of energy storage configurations, and that adjustments in the wind-solar structure also have significant effects on energy storage demand and economics. The research results can provide decision-making support for energy storage planning and policy development in future power systems to address extreme climate challenges.