Building Evaluation Model for Low-Carbon Transformation of Power Systems Based on Ecological Modernization Theory

Under the dual carbon goals, evaluating and optimizing low-carbon transformation pathways for power systems, the largest carbon-emitting sector, is crucial for sustainability. Based on ecological modernization theory, this paper develops an evaluation framework integrating ecological, climatic, and industrial structural dimensions. Analysis of provincial transformation from 2018 to 2022 shows accelerated low-carbon progress, with scores rising from 0.15 to 0.81, transitioning from improvement status to innovation leadership. Grey correlation analysis reveals technological innovation (0.892), funding (0.857), and institutional barriers (0.823) as key limiting factors. This paper proposes recommendations focusing on technological innovation, resource allocation, institutional reform, and collaborative governance, providing theoretical and policy guidance for power systems’ low-carbon transformation.