Machine Learning for Spatiotemporal Prediction of River Siltation in Typical Reach in Jiangxi, China

Accurate forecasting of river siltation is essential for ensuring inland waterway navigability and guiding sustainable sediment management. This study investigates the downstream reach of the Shihutang navigation power hub along the Ganjiang River in Jiangxi Province, China, an area characterized by pronounced seasonal sedimentation and hydrological variability. To enable fine-scale prediction, we developed a data-driven framework using a random forest regression model that integrates high-resolution bathymetric surveys with hydrological and meteorological observations. Based on the field data from April to July 2024, the model was trained to forecast monthly siltation volumes at a 30 m grid scale over a six-month horizon (July–December 2024). The results revealed a marked increase in siltation from July to September, followed by a decline during the winter months. The accumulation of sediment, combined with falling water levels, was found to significantly reduce the channel depth and width, particularly in the upstream sections, posing a potential risk to navigation safety. This study presents an initial, yet promising attempt to apply machine learning for spatially explicit siltation prediction in data-constrained river systems. The proposed framework provides a practical tool for early warning, targeted dredging, and adaptive channel management.