Assessing Supply Chain Resilience Under Imprecise Transportation Delays Using Simulation and Fuzzy DEA

Abstract: This study investigates the resilience of a three-echelon supply chain (SC) subject to potential disruptions in the transportation system. Four key resilience factors—visibility, velocity, redundancy, and flexibility—are considered. A simulation model is developed to represent the SC, and multiple scenarios are evaluated, each reflecting a unique combination of these resilience policies. Performance metrics such as average time in the system, resource utilization, number of breakdowns, and total operational cost are computed for each scenario. To determine the most effective strategy, fuzzy data envelopment analysis (FDEA) is applied, allowing for decision-making under uncertainty. The findings highlight the critical importance of visibility and redundancy in enhancing supply chain resilience. The proposed framework offers practical guidance for managers in selecting optimal strategies to mitigate the impact of transportation disruptions.