Vegetation-Specific Cooling Responses to Compact Urban Development: Evidence from a Landscape-Based Analysis in Nanjing, China

The urban heat island (UHI) effect has emerged as a growing ecological challenge in compact urban environments. Although urban vegetation plays a vital role in mitigating thermal extremes, its cooling performance varies depending on vegetation type and urban morphological context. This study explores the extent to which compact urban development-quantified using the Mixed-use and Intensive Development (MIXD) index-modulates the cooling responses of different vegetation types in Nanjing, China. A combination of landscape metrics, regression-based interaction models, and XGBoost with SHAP analysis is employed to uncover vegetation-specific and structure-sensitive cooling effects. The results indicate that densely planted trees exhibit reduced cooling effectiveness in compact areas, where spatial clustering and fragmentation tend to intensify UHI effects, particularly during nighttime. In contrast, scattered trees are found to maintain more stable cooling performance across varying degrees of urban compactness, while low-lying vegetation demonstrates limited thermal regulation capacity. Critical thresholds of MIXD (approximately 28 for UHI area and 37 for UHI intensity) are identified, indicating a nonlinear modulation of green space performance. These findings underscore the importance of vegetation structure and spatial configuration in shaping urban microclimates and offer mechanistic insights into plant-environment interactions under conditions of increasing urban density.