The Geostrategic Rivalry between the U.S. and China in the Mekong Subregion (2009–2024)

The article analyzes the evolution of geostrategic rivalry between the United States and China in the Mekong subregion from 2009 to 2024. The relevance of the topic is driven by the intensifying competition between the U.S. and China for influence in mainland Southeast Asia, where the Mekong subregion has emerged as a key arena of strategic confrontation with far-reaching geopolitical and economic implications. The object of the study is the geostrategic rivalry between the United States and China in the Mekong subregion. The subject of the study comprises the strategic objectives, instruments, and approaches employed by both powers in their geostrategic competition in the Mekong region during the period from 2009 to 2024. The aim of the study is to identify the differences in strategic goals, tools, and approaches of the two powers and to assess how these differences influence the transformation of the regional architecture of international relations. The methodological foundation of the research is grounded in the neorealist theory of international relations and employs methods such as content analysis, case studies, genetic history, and comparative historical analysis. The findings indicate that China pursues regional hegemony through the Belt and Road Initiative, the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation mechanism, and control over water resources, whereas the United States emphasizes soft containment, managerial support, and institutional partnership via the Lower Mekong Initiative and the Mekong-U.S. Partnership (MUSP). The scientific novelty of the study lies in its comprehensive comparative analysis of U.S. and Chinese strategies in the Mekong subregion within the neorealist paradigm, with a specific focus on institutional mechanisms of influence and the transformation of the regional balance of power. This work contributes to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which great powers exert influence amid a shifting balance of power in mainland Southeast Asia. It may also prove useful in formulating foreign policy strategies for small and medium-sized states in the region under conditions of external pressure.