Optimal power purchase decision‐making for receiving‐end power system considering uncertainties in two‐level inter‐provincial and intra‐provincial electricity markets

Abstract In this paper, an optimal power procurement decision‐making model for the receiving‐end power system considering uncertainties in two‐level inter‐provincial and intra‐provincial markets is proposed. The model aims to achieve secure and economically efficient system dispatch under market coordination, ensuring rational resource utilization and intra‐provincial supply‐demand balance. First, a decision‐making framework is established to mitigate renewable energy output fluctuations and enhance overall supply reliability under these two‐level uncertainties. Second, leveraging scenario generation for inter‐provincial market participant behavior uncertainties and introducing a fluctuation coefficient, an optimal procurement model based on information gap decision theory (IGDT) is developed to handle intra‐provincial wind and solar power output uncertainty. Finally, the model is empirically validated using actual transaction data from a provincial receiving‐end system in East China. Results demonstrate that increased inter‐provincial bidding pressure and greater intra‐provincial renewable output fluctuations both elevate system power supply costs. Crucially, the proposed model effectively quantifies the impact of uncertainty factors, enhancing the robustness of power procurement decisions.