Simulation of Canadian severe weather events using Cloud Model

We present a high-resolution modeling study of Canadian severe storms using Cloud Model 1 (CM1), with a focus on tornado- and hail-producing convective events. A curated dataset of 20 severe weather cases, 10 tornado and 10 hail events, across Canada, drawn from the Northern Tornadoes and Northern Hail Projects, forms the basis for the convection-resolving simulations. Initial conditions are constructed using thermodynamic profiles from ERA5 global reanalysis data. An ensemble of simulations is performed to evaluate the representativeness of the ERA5 vertical profiles and to identify potential limitations in using reanalysis data as ground truth. The ensemble includes the original ERA5 profiles and modified versions, as well as variations in convective initiation mechanisms and different microphysics schemes. Simulations are conducted on the high-performance computing system of the Shared Hierarchical Academic Research Computing Network (SHARCNET)/Digital Research Alliance of Canada. Key outputs include an integrated analysis of storm structure, dynamics, intensity, and evolution, along with comparisons to observed data. Results are visualized and made available through an interactive dashboard. This work provides new insight into the meteorological conditions of Canadian severe weather events and establishes a reproducible framework for convection-resolving ensemble storm simulations tailored to regional observational data. We plan to extend this work to more cases in the future.

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Published
2025-08-08
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/ecss2025-306
Primary Topic
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
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article
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article

Simulation of Canadian severe weather events using Cloud Model

Lisa Schielicke, Luna Awad, Keya Raval
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Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
article

Simulation of Canadian severe weather events using Cloud Model

Lisa Schielicke, Luna Awad, Keya Raval
article en

Abstract

We present a high-resolution modeling study of Canadian severe storms using Cloud Model 1 (CM1), with a focus on tornado- and hail-producing convective events. A curated dataset of 20 severe weather cases, 10 tornado and 10 hail events, across Canada, drawn from the Northern Tornadoes and Northern Hail Projects, forms the basis for the convection-resolving simulations. Initial conditions are constructed using thermodynamic profiles from ERA5 global reanalysis data. An ensemble of simulations is performed to evaluate the representativeness of the ERA5 vertical profiles and to identify potential limitations in using reanalysis data as ground truth. The ensemble includes the original ERA5 profiles and modified versions, as well as variations in convective initiation mechanisms and different microphysics schemes. Simulations are conducted on the high-performance computing system of the Shared Hierarchical Academic Research Computing Network (SHARCNET)/Digital Research Alliance of Canada. Key outputs include an integrated analysis of storm structure, dynamics, intensity, and evolution, along with comparisons to observed data. Results are visualized and made available through an interactive dashboard. This work provides new insight into the meteorological conditions of Canadian severe weather events and establishes a reproducible framework for convection-resolving ensemble storm simulations tailored to regional observational data. We plan to extend this work to more cases in the future.

Western University (CA)
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Openalex Percentile: Top 74%
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
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Simulation of Canadian severe weather events using Cloud Model — Lisa Schielicke, Luna Awad, et al. · (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS