Understanding energy system dynamics in a changing climate: Insights for first responders and risk managers

Climate change and the evolving global energy landscape pose intertwined escalating challenges for risk management, driven by diminishing fossil fuel reserves, mineral dependencies, climate variability, and geopolitical shifts. This article explores the systemic risks and cascading vulnerabilities embedded within energy system changes in a climate change context, focusing on their implications for first responders and disaster risk reduction strategies. The perspective highlights dependencies on fossil fuels, critical minerals, and global supply chains, alongside the new range of risks introduced by renewable energy transition and climate-induced disruptions. Structural and necessary changes required for electrification and decarbonization may complicate energy stability and infrastructure resilience. Particular attention is paid to the operational blind spots that may affect first responders and emergency managers. The article advocates for the inclusion of energy system dynamics in multi-risk assessments and emphasizes the importance of cross-sector collaboration to enhance systemic resilience. By synthesizing interdisciplinary evidence, it provides a strategic foundation for first responders, risk managers, and policymakers to anticipate and adapt to the interlinked risks of a shifting energy paradigm.