Decarbonization Pathway for Fujian’s Energy System Based on LEAP Model

As a strategic economic hub of China, Fujian’s carbon peaking trajectory critically influences national emission mitigation frameworks. Based on the historical data in the fields of social economy and energy, this paper constructs the LEAPFujian model to explore energy transition in Fujian province. The baseline scenario and the transition scenario are set to simulate the evolution trends of energy consumption and carbon emission in Fujian province from 2021 to 2060. The research results show that the total energy consumption will continue to increase, while the energy intensity will show a downward trend. The total carbon emission will exhibit the characteristics of an “inverted U-shaped” Environmental Kuznets Curve. The industry sector is the main source of energy consumption and carbon emission and has the greatest potential for energy conservation and emission reduction. In the transition scenario, Fujian province can achieve carbon peak goal around 2030. The research results can provide a scientific guidance for Fujian province to plan its medium and long term low-carbon development strategy.