Modeling the Influence of Social Vulnerability and Financial Resources on Housing Functionality Restoration

The postdisaster recovery of residential building functionality is a complex process that depends on the extent of physical damage, the availability of utilities, and the ability of the household to secure financial and recovery resources. The novelty of the housing functionality restoration model presented here is through capturing the relationship between the household’s social vulnerability (SV) and their ability to obtain sufficient recovery resources to complete the restoration process. Utilizing a nonregressive Markov chain and a simulation-based approach, four stages of functionality restoration are predicted temporally given the probability of attaining sufficient financial resources considering insurance payouts, federal grants, private loans, charitable gifts, and private savings. The four functionality levels are defined specifically for residential buildings considering the extent of physical damage, utility availability, and physical access to the road network. The household’s SV is estimated quantitatively through a stochastic process that uses socioeconomic characteristics obtained from US Census data. The proposed housing functionality restoration framework is illustrated for the City of Lumberton, NC, following a catastrophic flood event and validated using post-Hurricane Matthew field data captured in Lumberton, NC, in 2016 and 2018. The example shines light to disparate restoration timelines of housing, specifically in neighborhoods that are more or less socially vulnerable. Findings can be used to aid in risk-based and equity-driven decision-making targeting financial program redesign, structural mitigation, and recovery intervention strategies for socially vulnerable households.