Evaluating the socio-economic risks of a potential GLOF from Dudh Pokhari lake in Nepal's Everest Region

Climate change has caused glacial retreat in the Himalaya, resulting in the rapid formation and expansion of glacial lakes and an increased risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that threatened downstream areas. This study aims at assessing the potential socio-economic impacts of GLOFs from the potentially dangerous Dudh Pokhari glacial lake (0.34 ​km 2 ), in the Everest region of Nepal. GLOF was simulated in three breach scenarios using a Simplified Dam Break Model and HEC-RAS for dam breach and inundation analysis, respectively. Results showed varying inundation depth in the downstream with a maximum value reaching up to 25 ​m, leading to an estimated economic loss (2024 estimate) of 2,496,353 US$ in physical infrastructure and 5,696,615 US$ (2022 estimate) in tourism. Furthermore, GLOF will lead to adverse socio-economic and geomorphological effects due to disruption to the local economy and substantial environmental damage transforming forest areas into sediment and boulder deposition zones. This study, by providing valuable insights into downstream flooding, and economic consequences; highlights the need for mitigation initiatives and strategic governmental planning.