International Cumulative Integration and Assessment of Its Economic Effects

The application of the strategy of international cumulative integration in modern geopolitical conditions is due to its flexible nature, the absence of strict requirements for partner countries, which characterize classical integration agreements formed on the basis of free trade. This allows establishing mutually beneficial economic cooperation even if they have multi-vector national development strategies. The effects of international cumulative integration can manifest themselves in various directions and have a delayed cumulative effect, which occurs due to the expansion of the integration field, and the delayed result is determined by the duration of the construction of industrial and infrastructure facilities and the achievement of planned capacities, as well as the gradual inclusion of other industries and sectors of the economy in the integration process. The difference between cumulative integration and classical forms of international economic integration predetermined the need to apply other methods for assessing the results of the integration process based on an individual approach to individual participants in a joint project at each stage and the use of an individual system of indicators for the effectiveness of the integration process for each project. A model for assessing the effects of infrastructure projects, which is the most important component of cumulative integration, is proposed. This model was tested on joint projects of China and Central Asian countries. Correlation and regression analysis confirmed the hypothesis of the presence of an economic effect for China at the stage of their construction, but for Central Asian countries this effect will be more evident in the medium and long term.