Will e-bikes revolutionize urban mobility? Development and application of a transport model differentiating between conventional and electric bicycle traffic

Increasing cycling is crucial for building sustainable cities. Electric bicycles reduce the physical effort required for cycling, particularly in hilly areas and for individuals with limited strength, contributing to lower car use and promoting social equity. However, current transport models often overlook the growing impact of electric bicycles on urban mobility. We present a macroscopic transport model for Wuppertal, Germany, the first to dynamically differentiate between conventional and electric bicycles across ownership, mode, and route choice. Our model incorporates bicycle infrastructure, gradient, motor vehicle speed, and turns in value of distance space. In ownership and mode choice, differences in preference between person groups and trip purposes are considered. While the differentiated modeling approach did not improve the quality of the model compared to a model not differentiating between conventional and electric bicycle traffic, it provides valuable analytical insights. We evaluated three scenarios related to building more bicycle infrastructure and increasing e-bike ownership. Our results confirm that adding infrastructure increases cycling, although to a small degree. Infrastructure expansion primarily increases conventional bicycle use, whereas promoting electric bicycle ownership leads to a strong increase in electric bicycle trips, mostly replacing car trips. Synergies between electric bicycle adoption and infrastructure expansion are minimal but may vary depending on the characteristics of the latter. Furthermore, infrastructure expansion provides substantial benefits for existing cyclists beyond mere travel time savings. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating e-bikes into transportation models to accurately assess their impact on urban mobility and guide effective policy development. • The first transport model to fully distinguish between e-bikes and c-bikes. • The differentiated modeling approach allows for e-bike-specific analyses. • However, it does not further enhance model quality. • Infrastructure expansion has benefits beyond modal shift and travel time reduction.