TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION PREDICTION OF CARBON STORAGE IN RESOURCE-BASED CITIES BASED ON INVEST AND CAMARKOV MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF JIAOZUO CITY, CHINA

Land use change represents the most significant driver of ecosystem carbon stock dynamics.Investigating the evolutionary characteristics of land use and carbon stocks in Jiaozuo city, China, is crucial for promoting sustainable development and ecological transformation in the region.This study uses the InVEST model to measure carbon stock changes in Jiaozuo City from 1990 to 2020.It also employs the CA-Markov model to simulate 2035 land use under two scenarios: the natural development (NDS) and the ecological priority (EPS), considering various driving factors.The results indicate that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, significant land use changes occurred in Jiaozuo city, predominantly involving the conversion of cropland to forest land, grassland and construction land, with notable expansion of construction land.(2) During this period, Jiaozuo city's carbon storage exhibited a trend of fluctuation, with a total decrease of 1.26 t.The primary factors contributing to this change were the reduction of forest land and the expansion of construction land.(3) By 2035, under the NDS, the continued expansion of construction land is expected to further reduce carbon storage.However, in the EPS, the decline in carbon storage is anticipated to decelerate, with a greater emphasis on the protection of ecological land.