LANDSCAPE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ECOLOGICAL RISK DRIVING MECHANISMS IN A TRADITIONAL INDUSTRIAL CITY: EVIDENCE FROM ZHUZHOU, CHINA

Amid global urbanization, traditional industrial cities face increasingly complex ecological risks resulting from the interplay of industrial pollution and imbalanced land use patterns, leading to ecological security concerns.Therefore, assessing landscape ecological risk (LER) in traditional industrial cities and identifying its driving factors are crucial for safeguarding ecological security patterns and advancing sustainable urban development.Zhuzhou, one of China's first eight key industrial cities, has experienced intensive urban expansion and long-term industrial legacies, facing unique ecological vulnerabilities, and was therefore chosen as the study area.An ecological risk assessment model was constructed using land use data to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of LER from 2000 to 2020.Additionally, the Geodetector model was employed to identify the driving factors on a regional scale.The findings indicate that (1) Zhuzhou's land use is primarily composed of woodland and arable land, with frequent conversions between the two.Over time, landscape fragmentation has intensified, while ecological protection policies have slightly improved landscape connectivity.(2) Low-risk and medium-low risk areas account for over 70%, while notably, medium-low and medium-high risk areas have significantly expanded in area.LER exhibits a significant positive spatial correlation, which has weakened over time.(3) More than 75% of the study area maintained stable LER levels.LER changes follow a dynamic pattern of core improvement and peripheral deterioration, yet the overall LER level has slightly increased, indicating a decline in ecosystem stability.(4) LER is primarily influenced by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, and PM2.5 concentration.NDVI and elevation exhibited consistently high q-values in their interactions with other factors, and NDVI-related interactions played the most significant role in LER evolution.This study supports future ecological protection and risk management in Zhuzhou, while providing a scientific basis for ecological planning, sustainable land management, and risk control in similar cities worldwide.