Analysts’ bankruptcy prediction: revisiting the information value added by financial experts

• Analysts’ inputs significantly enhance bankruptcy prediction accuracy. • Their information offers incremental power over financial and market indicators. • Endogeneity addressed using control function estimation. • Ex-ante default-risk matching strengthens confounder control and model precision. • Findings inform investor, regulator, and market responses to distress signals. This study reexamines the question of the efficacy of information conveyed in analysts’ earnings forecasts (AEFs) in predicting firm bankruptcy. Utilizing an extended dataset and an enhanced econometric framework, we revisit and extend the seminal work of Moses (1990) to address limitations and provide comprehensive insights. We investigate the predictive power of analysts in anticipating bankruptcy, considering their forecasts and the level of coverage alongside accounting and market data. Our multivariate analyses reveal that analysts’ information significantly enhances bankruptcy prediction models, even after accounting for endogeneity effects and the ex-ante probability of failure. These findings underscore the complementary role analysts play as a source of predictive information for identifying impending bankruptcy, offering valuable insights for regulators, investors, and stakeholders to mitigate financial distress. Our study adds to the literature by demonstrating the incremental contribution of analysts’ information in bankruptcy prediction, beyond traditional accounting and market metrics. Future studies could reexamine the added value of additional informed players in the capital markets.