The Risks of Business Model Innovation in Established Firm: Insights From an Expert Study

ABSTRACT Business model innovation (BMI) offers potential value but comes with risks, particularly in established firms. Successful BMI implementation requires a thorough understanding and effective management of these risks. While extant BMI literature has drawn attention to the risks associated with BMI, the studies are either too generic or context‐dependent, offering limited insight into the specific risks faced by established firms. Moreover, in terms of the approach, these studies often recommend generic elements found in conventional risk management frameworks, which are not specifically situated within a BMI context. This paper draws on a two‐round Delphi expert study involving leading BMI academics and professional managers with significant BMI experience to identify the risks associated with BMI and underlying factors driving the risks. Using a systematic inductive analysis of the Gioia method, the expert responses identify that BMI risks fall into four categories: strategic, operational, financial, and stakeholder risks. Additionally, the risk factors divide into five categories: resource factors, behavioural factors, governance factors, environmental factors and complementarities factors. We then explore how the BMI risks may unfold, which allows us to uncover two important features of the risk factors. First, there are interdependencies between the risk factors, which suggest there is a systemic aspect to the risks. Second, the relative importance of BMI risk factors is context‐dependent, and certain BMI risk factors have a temporal dimension. We contribute to the BMI literature by providing a more nuanced discussion about the risks associated with BMI, which enhances the current understanding of the possibilities of undertaking successful BMI as well as finding effective ways to manage the process.