Determinant of Food Security Index in Central Sulawesi Province Indonesia

The Food Security Index (IKP) is a comprehensive indicator for evaluating the multidimensional aspects of food availability, accessibility, and quality adoption. From 2019 to 2024, IKP in Central Sulawesi showed considerable variation among districts and cities. Although there is significant growth at the provincial level, certain districts remained stagnant and slightly vulnerable. These inequalities underscore the importance of identifying key drivers of IKP to guide more effective and localized interventions that cover all aspects. This study aimed to employ an Instrumental Variable (IV) approach, leveraging climate data, to identify the determinants of IKP in the region. The selected instrument was validated for its relevance to rice production, which served as the primary endogenous variable. Using the IV Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) approach, the analysis outlined the significant influence of local government expenditure on goods and services, village funds, population density, and rice production on the IKP. The results showed that only expenditures on goods and services, as well as rice production, had a positive and substantial impact on food security, increasing it by 0,0807 and 0,0513 points, respectively, for every 1% increase in realization. Conversely, population density, village funds, real economic output, and other local government expenditures were associated with IKP reduction, suggesting demographic pressure, imbalanced income distribution, and inefficiencies in fund allocation. These findings emphasized the need for more strategic, productivity-oriented, and better-targeted fiscal allocation. Additionally, the study outlined the importance of correlating policy actions with evidence-based determinants of IKP to support inclusive and resilient development in Central Sulawesi.