Quantitative landslide risk assessment for Italy

Abstract Landslides are among the most prevalent geohazards worldwide, leading to significant loss of human lives and extensive property damage. Italy stands out as one of the European countries most frequently affected by landslides, resulting in significant consequences for its community. Despite numerous studies on landslides across Italy, including efforts in susceptibility modeling and forecasting, a comprehensive national-scale quantitative risk assessment is still absent. This gap reflects a broader trend in landslide risk research, where most studies are confined to limited areas due to methodological and data constraints. In this contribution, we present a quantitative landslide risk assessment for Italy (300,000 km $$^2$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mmultiscripts> <mml:mrow/> <mml:mrow/> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:mmultiscripts> </mml:math> ), integrating the key components: landslide hazard, landslide intensity, vulnerability, and exposure of elements at risk. We express landslide risk as potential economic losses to human properties, specifically buildings and land use. The analysis considers three primary landslide types: slow-moving landslides, fast-moving landslides, and rockfalls. Furthermore, the assessment incorporates a temporal dimension by estimating potential losses over 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year scenarios. The results reveal that slow-moving landslides generally pose the greatest risk with mean potential economic losses of 0.40 Million € in the 10-year scenario.