Global energy transition in an ageing World: The strategic role of Chinese renewable energy products

The world's ageing population and the energy transition (ET) the shift from fossil fuels to cleaner, sustainable energy sources are two interconnected but distinct global challenges. A significant portion of the growing global demand for ET solutions is met by renewable energy products (REPs), largely exported by China. Electricity generation is evaluated through an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model that captures short- and long-term dynamics in 35 host nations between 2002 and 2024, while considering demographic ageing. Results show that in the short term, Chinese REP exports lead to an estimated 7.5 % reduction in host countries' ET R&D investments due to substitution effects. However, in the long term, these exports stimulate a 15 % increase in R&D as they complement domestic innovation efforts. Furthermore, the interaction between REP imports and ageing populations reveals a −0.20 long-run coefficient, indicating that older populations may rely more on imports than domestic innovation. Policymakers should consider easing REP import restrictions to facilitate long-term R&D growth, especially in ageing societies facing rising energy needs.