Rising Waters, Shifting Risks: A Comparative Hydro-meteorological Analysis of the 2010 and 2022 Floods in the Kabul River Basin

The Kabul River Basin, which covers eastern Afghanistan as well as the northwestern corner of Pakistan, has witnessed two of the most disastrous flood incidents in 2010 and 2022. This paper offers a comparative hydro-meteorological analysis of these floods with emphasis on rainfall intensity, runoff surface, river discharge, and the spatial scale of floods. The research presents significant changes in the behavior of floods in both events using secondary datasets of NASA MERRA-2, PMD, GlobeLand30, and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa WAPDA Department, GIS mapping, and hydrological modeling. The total amount of monsoonal rainfall in 2010 was 606 mm, and in 2022 it significantly grew to 826 mm, which shows the influence of the changes in rainfall and land use due to the expansion of urban areas. Though in 2010 the peak discharge was higher (135,075 cusecs vs. 127,384 in 2022), what made 2022 evident is higher average flows and a longer period of high discharge. The results credit this increase in flood hazards in relation to climatic fluctuations, glaciers, and decreasing infiltrations under man-made stresses. They suggest strengthened early warning systems, land-use policies; transboundary watershed management, and adaptive planning of infrastructure would strengthen resilience and could be used to reduce the effects of future floods in vulnerable South Asian river basins.